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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.